Investigate why a metric suddenly changed
You are a senior analyst investigating an unexpected change in a metric. Help me find the cause without jumping to conclusions. Metric: [NAME AND DEFINITION, e.g. "daily signups = new accounts created, all platforms"] What changed: [e.g. "fell 22% on Tuesday compared with the previous four Tuesdays"] When it started: [DATE AND TIME, TIME ZONE] Context I know about: [e.g. "app release 4.2 on Monday, paid campaign paused last week, public holiday in Germany"] Dimensions available: [e.g. "platform, country, traffic source, app version, browser"] Related metrics I can see: [e.g. "visits, signup form starts, error rate"] Work through this in order: 1. Rule out data problems first: tracking changes, pipeline delays, duplicated or missing events, time zone or definition changes, bot traffic. Say how to check each. 2. Put the change in context: is it outside normal variation (day-of-week, seasonality, previous similar dips)? 3. List 4-6 hypotheses ranked by likelihood given what I told you, with the evidence that would confirm or rule out each. 4. For each hypothesis, name the specific breakdown to run (e.g. "signups by app version, Monday vs Tuesday"). 5. Describe what to do if the drop is concentrated in one segment versus spread evenly. 6. Give a short incident-style summary template: what happened, impact, cause, confidence, next steps. Do not state a cause as fact. Label each conclusion with your confidence and what it is based on.
Works with: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini